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      財經熱點 今日股市 金融信息 產經信息
      新粵網 > 財經 > 財經熱點 > 正文

      多國央行都在買黃金普通大眾要不要“跟風”?

      來源:茂名晚報 2019-07-05 07:36   http://www.e88p.com/

      今年以來,全球多國尤其是新興市場國家央行開始大舉增持黃金。數據顯示,一季度全球央行的黃金購買量創下6年來最高水平。中國央行也自去年12月起連續6個月增持黃金儲備。那么,黃金對于一國經濟有哪些重要作用?各國增持是否是因為看好其未來價格走勢呢?普通大眾要不要“跟風”買買買?

      上半年多國都在買黃金

      作為一種貴金屬,黃金除了因其稀有、貴重具有保值、增值等抗通脹功能外,還因其避險性而被推崇。世界政局和經濟越是不穩,黃金的避險屬性體現得越強。

      除此之外,對一個國家而言,黃金還具有特殊的意義。一國貨幣當局持有的黃金被稱為黃金儲備,可以用來平衡國際收支,穩定匯率水平和國內經濟。

      在今年大量增持黃金的國家隊伍中,中國和俄羅斯的增持規模引發關注。中國政策科學研究會經濟政策委員會副主任徐洪才表示:“黃金作為儲備貨幣的重要組成部分,是一個國家金融實力的象征,但是黃金在中國整個外匯儲備當中占的比重是非常小的。”他認為,中國增持黃金只是戰略性持有,目的是改善一下自身的資產結構。

      中國外匯投資研究院院長譚雅玲也持類似觀點。譚雅玲認為,中俄增持黃金應該還是為了各自外匯儲備的多樣化。

      普通大眾要不要跟風買?

      那么各國買買買這一風向指標對于普通大眾和投資者購買黃金具有參考價值嗎?

      這就要從購買渠道說起了。據徐洪才介紹,國家購買黃金一般不會從二級市場上購買,都是從一級市場也就是從企業直接購買。所以對于二級市場上的黃金價格并不會有太直接的影響。

      “當然,由于企業生產黃金的數量是有限的,當黃金被各國大量買入后,確實會造成供求關系的變化,從而會對二級市場的黃金價格產生一定影響。”徐洪才說。

      那么,普通投資者購買黃金該注意些什么呢?是否價格走低就可以選擇買入?對此,譚雅玲表示:“任何一個投資,包括黃金投資,都需要有基本常識才可以做投資選項,而不是看著價格低了,就做投資決定,這是片面的。投資者要根據自己的能力選擇投資。”她同時強調,不能把黃金作為一個投機性的品種去推進。

      未來黃金價格走勢如何?

      在日前創六年來新高后,由于國際形勢好轉、避險情緒回落,國際金價于7月1日大幅收跌近2%。不過,譚雅玲認為未來反彈的概率很大。

      她認為,未來有幾個因素影響金價走勢。第一跟美元、美國經濟和美聯儲的政策有關,相對于他們的不利面在增加,黃金避險和保本美元風險的概念就會上升,所以行情反彈的概率很大。第二就是黃金的技術周期也達成了反彈的可能。第三就是地緣政治。經貿關系和國際政治風險在上升,黃金作為避險或者抗拒政治或者地緣風險的能力就會刺激黃金價格高漲。

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